US midterms, 3 November 2026 — the model's view
Race polls from Wikipedia weighed against each state's and district's partisan lean (The Downballot, 2024 results on the 2026 lines), a national environment read from the polled races, and incumbency; 20,000 simulated elections with shared national, state and regional error. Graded walk-forward on Senate and governor races from 1998 and House races from 2006.
Live within caps. A politics bot trades on paper unless its owner switches it to real money on a live portfolio; then it trades the released US version, inside the per-trade and daily caps. Senate, governor, statewide and House markets may trade. The House is graded now (3,355 races, 2006–2024) and lean alone still beats the model there, so House trades go against the evidence. Margin, ranked-choice and fragile chamber markets are priced and recorded, never traded.
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